Kadar tukaran wang asing atau ‘foreign exchange’ adalah
transaksi yang melibatkan tukaran matawang sesebuah negara kepada matawang
negara lain. Harga matawang di antara dua negara ini akan bergantung kepada
permintaan dan penawaran matawang tersebut. Kadar pertukaran antara
dua mata wang sentiasa berubah-ubah.
Faktor
yang menyebabkan kejatuhan nilai ringgit Malaysia secara spesifik ialah disebabkan
oleh kejatuhan harga minyak dunia dan jangkaan kenaikan interest rates US.
Interest
rates adalah salah satu dasar kewangan yang digunakan untuk mempengaruhi
keseluruhan aktiviti dalam ekonomi bagi memastikan kadar permintaan dan bekalan
berada pada paras yang stabil. Daripada carta di atas kita dapat lihat bahawa
interest rates yang dikenakan oleh The Federal Reserves of US (The Fed) semakin
menurun dari tahun 2006, dan pada tahun 2009 kadar interest rates adalah hampir
pada 0%. Apa yang berlaku pada tempoh tersebut sebenarnya adalah salah satu
tindakan yang diambil oleh The Fed untuk membangunkan ekonomi AS yang lumpuh
kerana Krisis Ekonomi Dunia pada tahun 2008.
Jelaslah
di sini bahawa kita dapat melihat matawang negara lain di Asia juga mengalami
kejatuhan, dan kesemua matawang di atas adalah matawang negara yang mempunyai
ekonomi yang jauh lebih besar dari Malaysia seperti Indonesia, Korea Selatan,
Singapura dan Jepun. Secara ringkas, situasi yang dihadapi oleh Malaysia adalah
sama seperti negara-negara lain kerana faktor penyumbang terbesar kejatuhan
Ringgit Malaysia adalah disebabkan oleh jangkaan kenaikan interest rates US.
How Malaysia solved the
economic crisis in 1998 by Tan Mee Teng and Ying Pei Shang
1.Stabilisation of the
Ringgit
Malaysia’s
response the economic crisis stabilization
of the ringgit and second the restriction on the outflow of short-term capital.
Malaysia stability of the currency is guaranteed by pegging the ringgit to the
US dollar at a rate of RM 3.80 to US$ 1.00.For
the fixed exchange rate system to work, the outflow of short-term capital flows
had to be controlled.The Central Bank uses this rate to exchange dollars
with ringgit in its dealings with the commercial banks and other authorised
financial institutions, and they in turn are required to use this rate in their
currency dealings with the public.
2. Expansionary monetary
The government reduced the Statutory Reserve
Requirements where the funds which banks are required to maintain with the
Central Bank as a prudential measure. It reduce from 13.5 per cent to 10 per
cent in February 1998, 8 per cent in July 1998 and 4 per cent in October 1998.
This released significant liquidity to the banks. With
the reduction of the SRR, an additional
US$10 billion has been injected into the banking system that would help to
increase business and economic activities. The government also set a
target for the banks to increase their loans by 8 per cent in 1999. Interest
rates began to decrease and restrictions on debt repayments eased. In this
regard, the base lending rates (BLR) was reduced from the highest 12.3% in June
1998 to 6.79% in October 1999. Lending rates were consequently reduced from a
high 24% in February 1998 to 7.91% in October 1999. The lending spread was
capped to 2.5% of the BLR.
3. Expansionary fiscal policy
The initial contractionary
fiscal policy which had planned to cut government expenditure by 18 per cent in
December 1997 was reversed. In July 1998 a fiscal stimulus package was
announced, involving additional development expenditure of RM7 billion
allocated to agriculture, housing, education, health and rural development; and
a RM5 billion infrastructure development fund was set up to finance
infrastructure projects. The federal government had a budget surplus equivalent
to 0.8 per cent of GNP in 1996, and this rose to 2.5 per cent of GNP in 1997.
Reflecting the expansionary measures, the fiscal position then turned into a
budget deficit of 1.8 per cent in 1998, which increased to 3.2 per cent in 1999
and 5.5 per cent in 2001. (Ministry of Finance 2001, Bank Negara 2002).
4. Reform
and Structure the Financial and Corporate Sectors
The
depreciation of ringgit has had an adverse effect on the banking sector. Many
companies, including large corporations that have borrowed from the banks were
unable to repay loans. As a consequence, banks are unable to provide sufficient
funds to finance business activities. Thus, Asset Management Company
(Danaharta) was set up to manage the non-performing loans (NPLs) of
financial institutions with objective to remove the NPLs from the balance
sheets of financial institutions at fair market value and to maximise their
recovery value. This will free the banks from the burden of debts that had prevented
them from providing loans to their customers. As the capital base of banks has
been affected by the decline in share prices and NPLs, these banks need to be
recapitalised. Special Purpose Vehicle (Danamodal) was set up
to capitalise and consolidate the banking sector, i.e., to inject capital into
banks facing difficulties. The injection of capital will enhance the resilience
of banks, increase their capacity to grant new loans and consequently speed up
the economic recovery process.To complement the restructuring of the financial
system by Danaharta and Danamodal, the Corporate Debt Restructuring
Committee (CDRC) was set up in August 1998 to facilitate debt
restructuring of viable companies. The aim is to minimise losses to creditors,
shareholders and other stockholders; avoid placing viable companies into
liquidation or receivership and; to enable banking institutions to play a
greater role in rehabilitating the corporate sector. The CDRC devises
constructive and market-approach based to enable creditors and debtors to
devise and implement workout plan without resorting to legal procedures. It
also brings together all interested parties to assist the progress of all
corporate debt restructuring.
Sila buat analisis untuk ramalan tukaran MYR kepada USD dan JPY. Anda perlu meramal hari ini (kumpulan B) dan esok (kumpulan D) kadar tukaran pada 26 May. Dalam kelas nanti anda perlu tulis jawapan.
Please do an analysis to forecast exchange MYR to USD and JPY. You have to predict today (group B) and tomorrow (group D) the exchange rate on 26 May. In class you will have to write the answers.
