Oleh
Zulaikha, Arifudin, Amirul, Ee Ling, Kar Yan
The commercial ties between China and the US have been increasingly tense since President Trump took office. In particular, the steel and aluminium tariffs imposed by Trump’s administration caused an uproar not only from China, but from key allies of the US such as the EU, Canada and Mexico. A trade war is a period in which “each of two countries alternate in further restricting trade from the other, which usually takes the form of tariffs.
The steel and aluminium sectors in the US are argued to be crucial for their national defence, where these sectors have experienced a negative trade balance for most years. At the same time, China has picked up its steel and aluminium production. Malaysia is not amongst the top exporters of steel products. However, Malaysia ranks higher for global aluminium exports, placing itself on the 15th spot.
Besides that, one of the potential ways that Malaysia could be indirectly affected by a trade war between these two nations could be through global intermediate goods trade. Intermediate goods are products that are used as inputs to make final goods in the production process, where firms commonly segregate parts of the value chains in different production locations depending on efficiency, profitability and other factors. Malaysian intermediate goods exports are especially important with China.
The United States (US) and China are amongst the top trading partners of Malaysia where by any trade policies that harm trade between these countries could thus affect Malaysia’s trading position, especially since Malaysia’s intermediate goods exports with China is significant. Furthermore, policy uncertainty by these countries and other retaliating countries could dampen the overall growth of the region and consequently, Malaysia.
Hubungan komersil antara China dan Amerika Syarikat menjadi semakin tegang sejak Presiden Trump memegang jawatan sebagai Presiden Amerika. Khususnya, tarif keluli dan aluminium yang dikenakan oleh pentadbiran Trump menyebabkan kegemparan bukan sahaja dari China, tetapi dari sekutu utama Amerika Syarikat seperti EU, Kanada dan Mexico. Perang perdagangan adalah satu tempoh di mana "setiap dua negara berganti dalam menyekat perdagangan daripada yang lain, yang biasanya diambil dalam bentuk tarif.
Sektor keluli dan aluminium di Amerika Syarikat dikatakan penting bagi pertahanan negara mereka, di mana sektor-sektor ini telah mengalami imbangan perdagangan negatif untuk kebanyakan tahun. Pada masa yang sama, China telah mengambil pengeluaran keluli dan aluminiumnya. Malaysia bukan antara pengeksport utama produk keluli. Walau bagaimanapun, Malaysia berada di tahap yang lebih tinggi untuk eksport aluminium global, meletakkannya di tempat ke-15.
Di samping itu, salah satu cara yang berpotensi agar Malaysia tidak terjejas secara tidak langsung oleh perang perdagangan di antara kedua-dua negara ini boleh melalui perdagangan barangan perantaraan global. Barang pengantara ialah produk yang digunakan sebagai input untuk membuat barangan akhir dalam proses pengeluaran, di mana firma biasanya mengasingkan bahagian rantai nilai di lokasi pengeluaran yang berbeza bergantung pada kecekapan, keuntungan dan faktor lain. Eksport barangan pengantara Malaysia amat penting dengan China.
Amerika Syarikat (AS) dan China adalah antara rakan dagangan utama Malaysia dimana apa-apa dasar perdagangan yang membahayakan perdagangan antara negara-negara ini boleh menjejaskan kedudukan dagangan Malaysia. Ini kerana eksport barangan perantaraan Malaysia dengan China adalah penting. Di samping itu, ketidakpastian dasar oleh negara-negara ini dan negara-negara lain yang bertindak balas dapat melemahkan pertumbuhan keseluruhan rantau ini dan seterusnya, Malaysia.
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